1、 Introduction to LED
1.1. Introduction to LED technology
LED is the abbreviation of light emitting diode, which is a kind of compound semiconductor solid-state light-emitting device. It uses a solid semiconductor chip as a light-emitting material. When a positive voltage is applied at both ends, the carriers in the semiconductor compound to cause photon emission and generate light. LED can directly emit red, yellow, blue, green, green, orange, purple and white light, so it can be used to make LED.
Relevant reports: 2016-2022 Research Report on the current situation and investment prospects of China's LED lighting market
LED advantages: high efficiency of electro-optic conversion, green environmental protection, long service life, low working voltage, lossless life of repeated switch, small size, less heat, high brightness, strong and durable, easy to dimming, diverse colors, stable beam concentration, no delay in start-up.
Disadvantages of LED: high starting cost, poor color rendering, low efficiency of high-power LED, constant current drive (special drive circuit required).
1.2. LED is widely used
LED is called the fourth generation light source. It has the characteristics of energy saving, environmental protection, safety, long life, low power consumption, low heat, high brightness, waterproof, micro, shockproof, easy dimming, light beam concentration, easy maintenance, etc. it can be widely used in various indication, display, decoration, backlight, general lighting and other fields.
2、 Market space of LED lighting industry
2.1. LED has a broad market space in the field of lighting, and will become a new driving force to promote the development of the industry. According to the relevant principles of industrial smile curve, the two ends of smile curve are the parts with the highest added value. In the LED industry, the left end of smile is the MOCVD equipment manufacturing industry which is located at the high point of added value of the industrial chain, and the right end of smile curve is the LED application industry with brand and channel, that is, with customer resources.
The smile curve
LED is a typical downstream industry that promotes the upstream development. The downstream application innovation drives the vigorous development of the entire industrial chain. In the past 10 years, landscape lighting, LCD backlight, outdoor lighting, outdoor large screen display and other applications have become the driving force for the rapid development of the industry in different time periods. At present, landscape lighting, LCD backlight, outdoor large screen display and other LED application markets have developed mature. LED industry needs new applications to promote a new round of development of the whole industry.
In the past decade, the driving force for the rapid development of LED industry
LED has a wide space in the field of lighting, and will become a new driving force for the development of the industry. McKinsey predicts that from 2010 to 2016, the market share of LED lighting will increase from 7% today to more than 40%. By 2020, the revenue of LED lighting market will be close to 65 billion euros——It occupies nearly 60% of the global lighting market. At present, the market size of China's only semiconductor lighting products is more than 20 billion yuan, which will rise to 50-60 billion yuan in two or three years.
2.2. LED lighting will break out in an all-round way and accelerate market penetration
according to the latest LED lighting market trend report 2015 released by ledinsede, the global lighting market will reach US $82.1 billion in 2015. Among them, LED lighting market scale will reach US $25.7 billion, market penetration rate is 31%.
The penetration rate of LED lighting has steadily increased
divided by application fields. LED lighting can be divided into municipal traffic lighting, architectural landscape lighting, commercial lighting and civil lighting. For the consideration of green environmental protection, energy conservation and efficiency, the government departments vigorously promote the use of LED lighting products in municipal traffic lighting, which makes the municipal road traffic field the first field of LED lighting to enter and carry out large-scale application. In 2009, the Ministry of science and technology of China launched the project of "ten cities and ten thousand lamps". Since then, the market penetration rate of LED street lamps in China has been increasing. bogo-group According to the preliminary calculation of CSA research, the market scale of LED street light in China is about 23 billion yuan in 2015, and the overall market penetration rate of LED street lighting products in China will exceed 45%.
LED road traffic lighting scale and penetration rate in China
at present, led municipal traffic lighting is developed in some areasThe province's penetration rate has exceeded 50%. In recent years, with the increase of anti-corruption efforts, the road traffic lighting led by government departments has decreased. Therefore, lighting manufacturers have begun to seize the commercial and civil lighting market. With the decrease of price, the improvement of channel and the improvement of consumers' awareness, the penetration rate of commercial and civil lighting will increase rapidly in the next three to five years, which will become the main color-imagination driving force for the sustained and high growth of LED lighting market.
LED lighting market share in 2013
LED lighting market share forecast in 2020
three and five factors broaden the domestic LED lighting industry market. In 2014, global LED lighting products showed a trend of continuous price reduction. According to ledinsede data, in September 2014, the average price of LED light sources replacing 40W and 60W incandescent lamps in the world was $14.10 and $18.20, respectively, down 12.96% and 14.95% year-on-year respectively, and the price reduction was significantly narrower than that in the past two years.
In 2014, the price of domestic LED lighting products has been reduced to an acceptable inflection point in the market, and the price gap between physical channels and network has been further reduced. According to 2014 China semiconductor lighting industry data issued by CSA researchAs of December 2014, the price of LED bulb lamp has decreased by about 30% compared with the same period last year, with a narrower decline.
In 2014, the price trend of Taobao LED bulb lamp was
while the price continued to decline, the cost of LED lighting products also decreased. Thanks to the improvement of light efficiency, LED chip cost can be controlled under the same lighting intensity. In 2014, Cree once again shocked the LED lighting industry. The light efficiency of a single white light high-power LED device broke through 300 hurdles. Under the condition of 350mA driving at room temperature and 5150k color temperature, the light efficiency reached 303 LM / W. In the middle and lower links of the industrial chain, LED packaging introduces new technologies such as cob and packaging materials with better heat dissipation performance, which further improves the luminous efficiency of packaging devices. The design of LED light source and lamps tends to be integrated, and the design level is superior to the traditional light source, which also contributes to the cost control of the final product.
With the improvement of light efficiency and the decrease of price, LED general lighting products are obviously superior to energy-saving lighting products in cost performance. Considering the energy-saving effect, the cost of LED products can be recovered in 2-3 years, which is higher than that of energy-saving lamps. Its life span of up to 20000 hours also makes the replacement cost of lighting sources greatly reduced.
3.2. E-commerce channels have been broadened and domestic market has been fully penetrated
according to the 2014 China semiconductor lighting industry data and development overview released by CSA researchIt shows that in 2014, the major manufacturers of LED products accelerated the sinking of channels and began to penetrate the domestic market in an all-round way. The market showed the characteristics of high in the front and low in the back, accelerated sinking of channels, rapid development of e-commerce, accelerated start-up of the second and third tier markets, and gradual market explosion. In 2014, the annual growth rate of LED lighting product physical channel dealers remained above 25%. In the first half of this year, the second tier market erupted obviously, and the overall sales volume increased by more than 30%. Since the third quarter, the outbreak of the third and fourth tier markets has become the highlight of the second half of the year, and its sales volume has increased by about 26% compared with the same period last year. In terms of channels, the addition of e-commerce enriches the availability of LED lighting products. According to the LED lighting market and channel report released by CSA research, the online sales scale of LED lighting products is growing faster than that of physical channels. In the first eight months of 2014, the turnover of LED lighting appliances of Taobao was about 3.2 billion. Among them, LED light source is about 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 126%, accounting for 88.9% of the total light source products. In terms of lamps, the proportion of lamps with LED as light source is about 45% on average, more than double the 21.05% in August 2013. It is predicted that the sales volume of LED lighting products in e-commerce channels will continue to grow rapidly in 2015. It is worth mentioning that the new LED lighting brands have no interest disputes and pricing problems with the traditional entity channels, so it is faster to open up e-commerce channels.
3.3. The heat of intelligent lighting has been raised again and again, and the prospect is promising. The rise of mobile Internet (3413.16,66.540,1.99%) networks and intelligent devices has set off a smart storm in the field of lighting, which helps to form a breakthrough in the high-end civilian lighting market. In the future, users can control home lighting environment and customize scene application through mobile terminal to realize intelligent control of lighting equipment. Through 2014 Taiwan International Lighting Exhibition, Frankfurt lighting exhibition and Guangzhou lighting exhibition, we can see that intelligent lighting has become the focus of the industry. More and more enterprises include intelligent lighting application and control system in lighting solutions to maintain market competitive advantage. With the rapid development of Internet of things, intelligent lighting has reached the critical point.
Various international brands, such as Philips hue bulb, can easily adjust the light with smart phones, tablets or computers; Samsung has also launched three new smart bulb lamps; Havells Sylvania is a big winner of the 2014 Frankfurt lighting design award. Its award-winning products use the distributed network and the built-in infrared sensor of lamps to implement the wireless connection between lamps.
Domestic enterprises have also entered the field of intelligent lighting, and launched LED lamps with adjustable light color. According to the preliminary calculation released by CSA research, the demand for intelligent lighting products in China exceeds 1000 every yearIn addition, there are 193 "smart city" pilot projects in China. In the future, with the construction of smart city and the concept of smart home deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the prospect of intelligent lighting is promising. Intelligent lighting will be first penetrated by high-end home lighting market, so as to improve the overall penetration of civil LED lighting.
Now LED lighting products manufacturers are changing to system service providers. Through intelligent system integration of lighting system, further improve lighting energy efficiency and save energy. Intelligent lighting needs additional control modules and apps, which improves the market space of manufacturers. Intelligent lighting provides a good mobile Internet entrance for led enterprises, which will urge traditional lighting enterprises to increase cooperation with mobile Internet companies, and lighting will become an indispensable part of the future big Internet of things; and the development of Internet of things, smart home, etc. will also give LED intelligent lighting greater play and innovation space. Intelligent lighting will be a good opportunity for led enterprises to get rid of low-level price competition in the future.
3.4. The export growth is rapid, and the emerging market is booming
from January to November 2014, the total export of LED lighting products in China was nearly 7.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 104.52% year-on-year, about 5 times of the export value in 2011 (1.6 billion US dollars). The top ten export countries and regions are respectively the United States, Russia, Hong Kong, Japan, Germany, Britain, Spain, the Netherlands, Australia and Italy. However, the export market structure has changed a lot. The European and American markets have maintained rapid growth, but the market share has decreased.Emerging markets such as BRICs, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are emerging.
This is because: first, Chinese manufacturers are mainly involved in low-end LED products at this stage, to win the price. The market in Europe and America has a large demand for high-end LED products, while in the field of low-end LED products, the price is low for a long time and the profit is not high. Therefore, European and American markets have been dominated by several international LED brands for a long time. Chinese manufacturers mainly participate in European and American markets in the form of OEM with low profit margin. However, emerging market countries are attracted by the factors of large demand for low-end products, low market entry barriers and low market competition.
2、 At the policy level of emerging markets, due to the immature development of its own LED industry, the rapid growth of demand, the local market supply can not meet the local demand, so the government level adopts an open welcome attitude for the entry of foreign related products.
3、 Domestic LED lighting enterprises have their own manufacturing and cost advantages, and share high growth opportunities in their emerging markets. As shown in Figure 11 below, the prices of different domestic and foreign LED bulbs with the same specifications are compared: take the bulb e273w lamp as an example, the International LED manufacturers Philips and OSRAM are selected by foreign brands, Leishi lighting, sunshine lighting (10.95, - 0.220, - 1.97%) and Foshan Lighting (13.43, - 0.340, - 2.47%) are selected by national brands. Since sunshine lighting has been commissioned by Philips for a long time, Foshan Lighting has been commissioned by OSRAM for a long time。 Therefore, the comparison objects have similar quality. The comparison results show that the cost performance of domestic LED brands is higher than that of foreign brands. Philips's LED bulb of this specification is up to 17 yuan, while the sunshine lighting LED lamp for the factory is only 6 yuan. OSRAM's bulb of this specification is as high as 19 yuan, while the Foshan Lighting contracted by the factory is only 8 yuan. Compared with that, the price of domestic LED brand is only about 1 / 2 to 1 / 3 of the international brand, which has obvious cost-effective advantages.
Domestic LED lighting brand price is more affordable than foreign brands
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